Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 0.331599 0.377041 0.426377 0.483913 0.549172 0.620896 0.705717
2025-09-21 0.260971 0.320362 0.389829 0.477070 0.583722 0.709904 0.870625
2025-09-28 0.208549 0.274339 0.356639 0.467132 0.611649 0.794357 1.043157
2025-10-05 0.178706 0.250522 0.346084 0.482507 0.672357 0.927442 1.296773
2025-10-12 0.150020 0.223123 0.326145 0.481851 0.711386 1.037711 1.537859
2025-10-19 0.129057 0.202821 0.312477 0.487254 0.759086 1.166376 1.824535
2025-10-26 0.113891 0.188442 0.304938 0.500058 0.819089 1.321078 2.173294
2025-11-02 0.095594 0.166019 0.281351 0.483746 0.830594 1.402028 2.418150
2025-11-09 0.079330 0.144213 0.255274 0.458935 0.823750 1.451369 2.617178
2025-11-16 0.068434 0.129887 0.239555 0.449178 0.840678 1.542236 2.900082
2025-11-23 0.059189 0.117033 0.224425 0.437937 0.852793 1.625494 3.180452
2025-11-30 0.053986 0.110967 0.220800 0.447461 0.904686 1.788033 3.632452
2025-12-07 0.046261 0.098950 0.204489 0.430782 0.905142 1.856589 3.919720
2025-12-14 0.040745 0.090575 0.194168 0.424662 0.926115 1.968999 4.314534
2025-12-21 0.035773 0.082545 0.183343 0.415795 0.940006 2.069070 4.699714
2025-12-28 0.033292 0.079611 0.182925 0.429475 1.004902 2.286424 5.374721
2026-01-04 0.030045 0.074380 0.176628 0.428883 1.037573 2.437880 5.924700
2026-01-11 0.027549 0.070526 0.172893 0.433688 1.083579 2.626254 6.590935
2026-01-18 0.025720 0.068013 0.171945 0.445086 1.147257 2.865262 7.417464
2026-01-25 0.022679 0.061906 0.161294 0.430557 1.144158 2.942584 7.852345
2026-02-01 0.019657 0.055344 0.148496 0.408459 1.118163 2.959096 8.133272
2026-02-08 0.017628 0.051141 0.141179 0.399770 1.126294 3.064173 8.666328
2026-02-15 0.015782 0.047144 0.133805 0.389759 1.129276 3.156143 9.178408